Originally published in The Manila Times on September 3, 2026.
BAM Aquino entered the 20th Congress with one of the strongest electoral credentials of the 2025 midterms: second place nationwide, nearly 21 million votes and a map extending well beyond the traditional opposition base.
That naturally puts his name in conversations about 2028. The mistake would be to treat his Senate total as though it were already a presidential vote. The 2025 result established Aquino as a national political asset; the early 2026 numbers help show what that asset might become.
In Pulse Asia’s July 2026 vice presidential test, Aquino was at 14 percent, tied with Grace Poe and behind Bong Go at 27 percent and Robin Padilla at 21 percent.
The map was more interesting: Aquino led Metro Manila at 23 percent and was among the leaders in the rest of Luzon at 16 percent, although he drew only 3 percent in Mindanao.
In an alternative three-way presidential test, Sara Duterte received 57 percent, Erwin Tulfo 16 percent and Aquino 15 percent. Aquino reached 27 percent in Metro Manila but only 2 percent in Mindanao.
Momentum Research, using a broader field that included Leni Robredo, placed Aquino at 2.0 percent nationally—evidence less of a 2-percent ceiling than of how opposition voters currently distribute when Robredo is offered as a choice.
The 21-million-vote illusion
The easiest analytical error is to say that nearly 21 million Senate votes give Aquino a 21-million-vote presidential base.
They do not.
A Senate voter could choose Aquino together with Bong Go, Ronald dela Rosa, Imee Marcos or Francis Pangilinan. Those mixed ballots demonstrate acceptability, not exclusive allegiance.
Yet that cross-camp acceptability is itself politically valuable, particularly in a fragmented national contest. The vice presidency may especially reward that trait because Filipino voters have repeatedly shown a willingness to split presidential and vice presidential choices.
For the presidency, the threshold is higher: Aquino must turn “I can include him on my ballot” into “he is my first choice.”
The early polling says that conversion has not happened yet, but it also shows where a future coalition could begin.
What he carries into 2028
His clearest asset is national reach.
First-place finishes in Pangasinan and Cavite, together with competitive rankings in Leyte, Cebu and parts of Mindanao, show a broader starting map than his partisan label suggests.
He also has time.
Unlike in 2025, when his most dramatic movement occurred in the final weeks, Aquino now has a Senate seat and almost two years to turn visibility into a clearer national identity.
The opportunity is to own a small number of issues strongly enough to create first-choice intensity, not merely general goodwill.
Where the Senate coalition may break
The clearest geographic weakness is Mindanao.
Aquino drew only 2 percent there in Pulse Asia’s Duterte-Tulfo-Aquino presidential scenario and 3 percent in the vice presidential test. Sara Duterte, meanwhile, received 87 percent in Mindanao in Pulse Asia’s main six-way presidential test.
The starting market is therefore heavily dominated by the Duterte brand.
The succession question matters just as much.
As long as Robredo is tested as a presidential option, Aquino has limited room to inherit most of the opposition vote. His path changes materially if she does not run, or if an eventual transfer of support is strong enough for voters to follow.
Beyond geography and succession is the central challenge: Senate elections reward broad acceptability; presidential elections reward first-choice intensity. Aquino has already demonstrated the first.
The next two years will show whether he can build the second.
President, vice president—or kingmaker?
On today’s numbers, the vice presidency is the more immediately competitive national race: Aquino’s 14 percent, leadership in Metro Manila and strength in the rest of Luzon place him inside a real contest without a majority favorite.
A presidential bid requires more evidence, but Pulse Asia’s three-way test shows he can reach the mid-teens under a favorable configuration.
His 2025 result also gives him another source of leverage: the ability to influence a national coalition even if he does not head the ticket.
A senator who can speak to the opposition base while retaining credibility among crossover voters can help determine not only who runs, but what kind of coalition becomes possible.
The real test of 2027
The important numbers now are not whether Aquino appears on speculative 2028 lists.
They are whether his single-choice support rises as his Senate profile grows, whether the Luzon-Mindanao gap narrows, and whether crossover voters stay with him once the choice becomes exclusive.
The 2025 election established something significant: Bam Aquino can assemble a large national coalition when voters are allowed to choose 12 senators.
By 2028, the question is whether enough of that coalition will see him not merely as someone worth including, but as the one candidate worth choosing.
Bong Habana Ruado is a former public-sector official whose career has spanned government, politics, public policy and the private sector. His current interests include public opinion research, governance data and explanatory journalism, with a particular focus on interpreting political surveys beyond their headline numbers. He holds degrees in political science and law and completed the Strategic Business Economics Program at the University of Asia and the Pacific.
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