INSIDE THE NUMBERS

  • Podcast Episode: Is there such a thing as a TULFO brand?

    Pip: Three brothers, two Senate seats, and a question that Inside The Numbers can't quite let go of — what exactly is the Tulfo brand, and does it travel as well as their television signal? Mara: This episode follows that question through the Tulfo family's electoral record, their regional footprint, and what the survey numbers…

    Inside The Numbers

  • The TULFO brand

    Is There Such a Thing as the Tulfo Brand? By Bong Habana Ruado Philippine politics came close to an unusual situation in 2025. Had Ben Tulfo moved up just one place in the senatorial race, three Tulfo brothers would have been sitting in the Senate at the same time. Raffy was already midway through his…

    Inside The Numbers

  • Inside the Numbers: The Podcast Episode 2: Sara’s 44%

    Pip: Forty-four percent — a number that barely flinches no matter how you rearrange the question around it. Mara: That’s the puzzle Inside the Numbers article by Bong sets up: what survey design reveals about Sara Duterte’s support structure, and whether that number is a foundation or a ceiling. Let’s start with what the surveys…

    Inside The Numbers

  • InsideTheNumbers: The Podcast Episode 2- Bam Aquino’s 21M votes- Mandate or Mirage?

    Pip: Nearly 21 million Senate votes, and the first thing the numbers say is: don’t read them as a presidential mandate. This is what Inside the Numbers Bong column has been doing exactly that kind of cold-water analysis this week. Mara: Right — the posts cover Bam Aquino’s surge and what it actually signals for…

    Inside The Numbers

  • After No. 2: What Bam Aquino’s 2025 vote really means for 2028

    Originally published in The Manila Times on September 3, 2026. https://www.manilatimes.net/2026/09/03/opinion/contributors/after-no-2-what-bam-aquinos-2025-vote-really-means-for-2028/2417197 BAM Aquino entered the 20th Congress with one of the strongest electoral credentials of the 2025 midterms: second place nationwide, nearly 21 million votes and a map extending well beyond the traditional opposition base. That naturally puts his name in conversations about 2028. The…

    Inside The Numbers

  • From the edge to No. 2: How Bam Aquino outran the 2025 Senate surveys

    Originally published in The Manila Times on September 2, 2026. https://www.manilatimes.net/2026/09/02/opinion/contributors/from-the-edge-to-no-2-how-bam-aquino-outran-the-2025-senate-surveys/2416287 THIS is an attempt to dissect Bam Aquino’s extraordinary rise in the 2025 midterm elections using numbers rather than political narrative. The Aquino name, the “Pink” vote, the youth, social media, endorsements and campaign strategy have all been offered as explanations. Some may be…

    Inside The Numbers

  • The Magic 12 has five empty seats

    Originally published in The Manila Times on August 26, 2026. https://www.manilatimes.net/2026/08/26/opinion/contributors/the-magic-12-has-five-empty-seats/2411880 THERE are 12 Senate seats up for election in 2028. But ask Filipino voters today to fill them, and the average ballot stops at seven names. That may be more revealing than who happens to rank first. In Pulse Asia’s late-June and early-July survey,…

    Inside The Numbers

  • The tandem paradox

    Originally published in The Manila Times on August 22, 2026. https://www.manilatimes.net/2026/08/22/opinion/contributors/the-tandem-paradox/2410069 SARA Duterte leads Leni Robredo in OCTA Research’s latest solo presidential test. Put Robredo together with Raffy Tulfo, however, and the picture changes. In OCTA’s Q2 2026 head-to-head presidential survey, Duterte received 43 percent against Robredo’s 34 percent. In a hypothetical tandem test from…

    Inside The Numbers

  • Sara Duterte’s 44 percent: Solid lead or early ceiling?

    Originally published in The Manila Times on August 18, 2026. https://www.manilatimes.net/2026/08/18/opinion/columns/sara-dutertes-44-percent-solid-lead-or-early-ceiling/2406895 THERE is a number in the latest presidential surveys that deserves more attention than the rankings. It is 44 percent. OCTA Research’s Q2 head-to-head asked voters to choose between Vice President Sara Duterte and Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo. Duterte received 43 percent; Robredo,…

    Inside The Numbers

  • Marcos’ ratings improved, but which number matters?

    SOCIAL Weather Stations’ (SWS) June survey produced what looks like a contradiction inside a single set of interviews. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s personal net satisfaction rating improved by 8 points from -15 in March to -7. His administration’s net satisfaction rose 14 points from -13 to +1. Yet, his personal net trust fell from -3…

    Inside The Numbers