Originally published in The Manila Times on August 26, 2026.
THERE are 12 Senate seats up for election in 2028. But ask Filipino voters today to fill them, and the average ballot stops at seven names.
That may be more revealing than who happens to rank first.
In Pulse Asia’s late-June and early-July survey, 89 percent of respondents expressed interest in the 2028 elections. Yet they selected an average of only seven senatorial candidates. Just 19 percent completed all 12 choices.
The headlines naturally focused on the Magic 12. Most voters, however, have not created one yet.
Five choices still open
A voter who has settled on seven names still has five Senate choices unfilled. Those spaces matter because a candidate outside today’s top 12 does not necessarily have to take support away from somebody already inside it. For many voters, there are still choices left to fill.
That makes the Senate race different from the presidential contest. A presidential voter has one vote; movement toward one candidate normally means movement away from another. A Senate voter can add names without dropping anyone already chosen, at least until all 12 slots are filled.
For candidates outside the current winning circle, that creates room. Campaigns have barely begun. Endorsements have not been made. The final field is unknown, and the hypothetical candidate lists used by pollsters will not necessarily resemble the eventual 2028 ballot.
Five unfilled choices leave plenty of space for the race to change.
Twelve seats, 17 possible winners
Pulse Asia did not identify exactly 12 statistically distinct potential winners. It reported 17 personalities with a statistical chance of winning if the election had been held during the survey period.
The uncertainty is clearest around the cutoff.
Ben Tulfo, with 20.7 percent, had a statistical ranking of 10th to 12th. Jinggoy Estrada, at 19.5 percent, ranged from 10th to 17th. Willie Revillame, at 19 percent, occupied the same range. Francis Escudero, at 17.2 percent, could statistically rank anywhere from 11th to 19th.
A published ranking must still put one candidate at No. 12 and another at No. 13, even when the survey cannot confidently separate them.
The Senate will eventually have 12 winners. A poll conducted this far from Election Day does not have to produce 12 clear ones.
The leaders and the incomplete ballot
There is already a recognizable upper tier.
Pulse Asia had Robinhood Padilla at 48.4 percent, Vico Sotto at 47.9, Raffy Tulfo at 43.9, Alan Peter Cayetano at 43.2 and Loren Legarda at 40.3.
OCTA Research’s July survey produced a somewhat different ordering but a similar group near the top: Padilla led with 53.9 percent, followed by Tulfo at 47.4, Cayetano at 45.4, Grace Poe at 44.5 and Sotto at 42 percent.
Below them were Legarda at 39 percent, Manny Pacquiao at 34.5, Paolo Duterte at 34.3 and Ben Tulfo at 31 percent before the survey reached the more congested part of the field: Abby Binay at 26.1, Jinggoy Estrada at 25.5, Mark Lapid at 25 and Escudero at 23.2.
That is the important distinction. The top of the board can be relatively clear while the lower edge of the winning circle is much less certain.
The lists themselves also matter. These are hypothetical elections, and pollsters decide which names respondents are asked to consider. Some names may eventually seek another office or not run at all. If a prominent personality disappears from the final field, voters do not lose a Senate vote; that choice becomes available to somebody else.
The Senate ballot also permits far more political mixing than a presidential ballot. Voters can choose candidates associated with different families, alliances and factions without accepting any party’s complete slate.
The published aggregates cannot tell us how often individual respondents are crossing political camps. What they do show is that a Senate preference percentage should not automatically be read as membership in a fixed political bloc.
The real fight may begin with the eighth name
This is where the average of seven choices becomes politically important.
Candidates such as Ben Tulfo, Estrada, Revillame and Escudero sit in the range where those remaining choices matter most. They do not necessarily need to defeat Padilla, Tulfo or Cayetano to become competitive. Their immediate contest is to become the next acceptable name on ballots that are still incomplete.
A candidate presently outside the Magic 12 could gain several points simply by becoming an eighth, ninth or 10th choice for voters who have not yet used all 12 slots. The reverse is equally true: someone nominally inside today’s winning circle can be displaced once voters begin filling out the rest of their ballots.
That makes growth potential different from current rank.
Only 19 percent of Pulse Asia respondents had completed all 12 choices. For everyone else, the ballot was still incomplete, with one or more choices left unfilled.
The Magic 12 will eventually become real. Twelve candidates will win and everyone else will lose.
But that is Election Day arithmetic.
Today’s surveys are showing us something earlier: how far voters have progressed in constructing their ballots.
And most ballots are still incomplete.
For now, the number worth watching may not be 12.
It may be seven.
Bong Habana Ruado is a former public-sector official whose career has spanned government, politics, public policy and the private sector. His current interests include public opinion research, governance data and explanatory journalism, with a particular focus on interpreting political surveys beyond their headline numbers. He holds degrees in political science and law (Juris Doctor), and completed the Strategic Business Economics Program at the University of Asia and the Pacific.
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