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September 13, 2026 If social media were a survey, Robin Padilla would be among the country’s least popular senators. Alan Peter Cayetano would not be far behind. Both are regular targets of online ridicule and harsh commentary. Radio, television and newspaper commentary is often no kinder. The numbers, however, tell a different story. Momentum Research’s…
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PHILIPPINE politics came close to an unusual situation in 2025. Had Ben Tulfo moved up just one place in the senatorial race, three Tulfo brothers would have been sitting in the Senate at the same time. Raffy was already midway through his first term after winning 23.4 million votes and finishing third in 2022. Erwin…
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Pip: Three brothers, two Senate seats, and a question that Inside The Numbers can't quite let go of — what exactly is the Tulfo brand, and does it travel as well as their television signal? Mara: This episode follows that question through the Tulfo family's electoral record, their regional footprint, and what the survey numbers…
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Pip: Forty-four percent — a number that barely flinches no matter how you rearrange the question around it. Mara: That’s the puzzle Inside the Numbers article by Bong sets up: what survey design reveals about Sara Duterte’s support structure, and whether that number is a foundation or a ceiling. Let’s start with what the surveys…
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Pip: Nearly 21 million Senate votes, and the first thing the numbers say is: don’t read them as a presidential mandate. This is what Inside the Numbers Bong column has been doing exactly that kind of cold-water analysis this week. Mara: Right — the posts cover Bam Aquino’s surge and what it actually signals for…
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Originally published in The Manila Times on September 3, 2026. https://www.manilatimes.net/2026/09/03/opinion/contributors/after-no-2-what-bam-aquinos-2025-vote-really-means-for-2028/2417197 BAM Aquino entered the 20th Congress with one of the strongest electoral credentials of the 2025 midterms: second place nationwide, nearly 21 million votes and a map extending well beyond the traditional opposition base. That naturally puts his name in conversations about 2028. The…
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Originally published in The Manila Times on September 2, 2026. https://www.manilatimes.net/2026/09/02/opinion/contributors/from-the-edge-to-no-2-how-bam-aquino-outran-the-2025-senate-surveys/2416287 THIS is an attempt to dissect Bam Aquino’s extraordinary rise in the 2025 midterm elections using numbers rather than political narrative. The Aquino name, the “Pink” vote, the youth, social media, endorsements and campaign strategy have all been offered as explanations. Some may be…
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Originally published in The Manila Times on August 26, 2026. https://www.manilatimes.net/2026/08/26/opinion/contributors/the-magic-12-has-five-empty-seats/2411880 THERE are 12 Senate seats up for election in 2028. But ask Filipino voters today to fill them, and the average ballot stops at seven names. That may be more revealing than who happens to rank first. In Pulse Asia’s late-June and early-July survey,…
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Originally published in The Manila Times on August 22, 2026. https://www.manilatimes.net/2026/08/22/opinion/contributors/the-tandem-paradox/2410069 SARA Duterte leads Leni Robredo in OCTA Research’s latest solo presidential test. Put Robredo together with Raffy Tulfo, however, and the picture changes. In OCTA’s Q2 2026 head-to-head presidential survey, Duterte received 43 percent against Robredo’s 34 percent. In a hypothetical tandem test from…
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Originally published in The Manila Times on August 18, 2026. https://www.manilatimes.net/2026/08/18/opinion/columns/sara-dutertes-44-percent-solid-lead-or-early-ceiling/2406895 THERE is a number in the latest presidential surveys that deserves more attention than the rankings. It is 44 percent. OCTA Research’s Q2 head-to-head asked voters to choose between Vice President Sara Duterte and Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo. Duterte received 43 percent; Robredo,…
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by Bong Habana Ruado
